Precipice

Warning: a political rant follows.

Rhetorical questions to start. When are we going to see leaders who understand that terrorism will not be defeated by further acts of terrorism? When will they get it? Why can they not see that acts of terror committed by a state in the name of peace engender nothing but more terror, with the state's own citizens the inevitable targets? Surely this is obvious even to the most narrow-minded bigot?

History is 100% clear on this: violence begets violence. Look at historical conflicts. There have only ever been two ways to break the cycle. One is to make the first move, and be the first to lay down arms. This is a seldom travelled path, but we've seen it in Northern Ireland for example. It requires a willingness to make concessions and understand the other side's grievances. It's the sort of thing of which a modern, liberal democracy ought to be capable. One thing's for damn sure, the terrorists won't do it, not as long as their grievances exist. The alternative is to defeat the other side utterly and totally. This has been the norm throughout history, involving unspeakable atrocities on civilians. Even then, if future conflict is to be avoided, either you need to eliminate every trace of injured party - and Israel really ought to know that genocide is not an option - or you show magnanimity and compassion to whatever's left (see the post-war reconstruction of Germany and Japan, compare and contrast with the Treaty of Versailles).

Israel can never utterly defeat its enemy. Largely as a result of Israel's own actions, its enemy is not just the Palestinian people, but the entire Moslem world. Does Israel seriously think it can take on the whole of Islam? Does it think 'the West' will join it in a fight to the death? (That some people want and expect this to happen frightens me more than words can express.) The only way in which Israel can achieve security for its people is to acknowledge the legitimate grievances of its enemy, and to seek reconciliation. But we know by now that Israel will never do this as long as its 'big brother' is standing behind it, unquestioningly flexing its knuckles and intimidating the smaller kids into backing away and finding sneakier ways of inflicting pain on the school bully (kidnapping its soldiers, suicide bombing cafés).

And so we come to the heart of the problem. Blind, vicious, disproportionate and ultimately defeatist retaliation is what we expect from Israel. What is truly scary is the sense that the United States will defend Israel unconditionally, regardless of any objective notion of justice. I say scary, and obviously it is, but I guess we can no longer call it surprising. You really do get the feeling that powerful forces in American government want a fight to the death with Islam. I can't see any other explanation for the rank hypocrisy of the US position on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Palestine, Syria, when compared to other intractable parts of the world. To say it's just oil is to miss a part of the picture. I don't think you have to look too hard to see a fundamentalist religious agenda here.

And where do we stand? "We" being the secular western liberal democracies (obviously we can no longer include the US among our number). Tragically, we're impotent and our leaders are unwilling (perhaps unable) to defend our long term security. We're looking into the abyss and seem unable to act. I genuinely believe that Blair thought he could bring some positive influence to bear on Washington's Middle East policy by getting involved in Iraq - a doomed ambition from the outset, as anyone could have told him (and we did, in our millions); all he's achieved is a permanent stain on his personal legacy, in the process making his country (and the world) a significantly more dangerous place in which to live. The rest of us - what options do we have? Putin seems to be the only one ready to stand up - and he's hardly ideal.

I think it boils down to our same inability to take decisive long-term action on the environment (see my 'bike' post). Our political system brings many short-term benefits but it seems to be rubbish at making our planet a secure place for our grandchildren.

The photo in today's post was taken at Niagara Falls, just over a year ago. I was involved in an international summit being held nearby. It was a fairly successful summit, according to the pathetic standards by which these things are judged. Much hot air was spouted at great expense to the taxpayer, producing instantly forgettable platitudes which left the world entirely unchanged. Meanwhile, outside, the water kept flowing relentlessly over the edge of the abyss.

Details: Nikon D70, 18-70mm lens @ 48mm, f/14, 1/640s, ISO 500. 19 June 2005, Niagara Falls, Ontario. Placemark.